HYBRID NEURAL NETWORK SYSTEM FOR ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING OF TELECOMUNICATION STATION

Maurizio Caciotta, Sabino Giarnetti, Fabio Leccese

Abstract

This paper describes a neural network system for power electric load forecasting of telecommunication station. Getting an accuracy useful for contractual purpose a separately daily forecast of both main load and its oscillation is proposed.<br />For the mean daily forecast we used a three layers multi-layer perceptron (MLP), while to the oscillation forecasting we realized a system composed by a MLP and a self organizing map (SOM): the typology information obtained by the SOM unsupervised algorithm has been utilized as binary code in MLP input.<br />The proposed system with hourly power load data of a big telecommunication operator has been tested.<br />The total forecast has been obtained combining the two components. The forecasting accuracy for a whole year test data is around 2%. Some problem exists in the forecasted load of summer time.

Keywords

short term load forecasting, SOM, MLP

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IMEKO-WC-2009-TC4-056.pdf

DOI

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IMEKO TC

TC4 - Measurement of Electrical Quantities

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