UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF AVERAGE FLOW DURATION CURVES USED IN HYDRPOWER PLANTS FEASABILITY STUDIES

C. Simões, A. S. Ribeiro, M. C. Almeida, D. Covas

Abstract

This study applies a Monte Carlo method (MCM) to estimate the uncertainty related to the determination of the annual flow duration curve determined at a river weir, considering the dynamic behaviour of processes and the intrinsic uncertainty contributions to the raw data. The computation of the curve uses a time series of average daily flow data collected at a hydrometric station at an upstream river section. This curve was used for a hydropower plant feasibility study. Results show how model uncertainty can be estimated from the measurement uncertainty of raw data and mathematical formulation applied.

Keywords

Uncertainty; time series; mathematical models; Monte Carlo method; data

Download

IMEKO-TC11-2022-18.pdf

DOI

10.21014/tc11-2022.18

IMEKO TC

TC11 - Measurement in Testing, Inspection and Certification

Back to the proceedings