Failure rates sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation

M. Catelani, L. Ciani, S. Rossin, M. Venzi

Abstract

This paper is focused on sensitivity analysis achieved on system reliability: sensitivity assessment allows putting in discussion nominal values taken from a generic database and focus on uncertainty quantification and propagation of uncertainty from input to output. There are many sources of uncertainty that can affect input data and this uncertainty imposes a limit on our confidence in the response of the model. In this paper sensitivity analysis is achieved on GE Oil&Gas mineral lube oil console, a system forced to endure extreme process and environmental conditions. In order to have a wide sample survey Monte Carlo simulation is used supposing two different probability distributions (uniform and normal) for failure rates coming from OREDA Offshore Reliability Data Handbook.

Keywords

sensitivity analysis, reliability assessment, Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), oil & gas applications, gas turbine auxiliary systems, Monte Carlo simulation, uniform distribution, normal distribution

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IMEKO-TC10-2014-034.pdf

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IMEKO TC

TC10 - Measurement for Diagnostics, Optimization and Control

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